EA as Part of Strategic Planning
TOGAF® 9 is The De Facto Standard
Use of Visio and Office
Major Differences Within Geographic Regions and Business Sectors
In looking at the future of enterprise architecture as envisioned and interpreted by market watchers, it is important to take into account significant financial and economic factors. If we look at the adoption of enterprise architecture it is predominantly centred around the following geographic regions: Northern Europe (no so much in Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain), North America and Canada (relatively little up take in the Central and South American countries), Australia and New Zealand but to a much lesser extent in ASEAN countries. If one looks at industry sectors, the adoption varies enormously. The nature of the sector business models constrains EA adoption e.g. an Airline's business model (constrained by ticketing systems, etc.) is very different to a global mining company (focusing on driving out cost from process is essential). These different business models create different drivers for EA.
In Summary: Global variation in geographic region and business sector create different drivers for EA
The Adverse Economic Conditions in the Next 3 Years
Any 3 year perspective on the EA Market would be incomplete without considering current adverse global economic conditions. This will impact the emphasis and quantum of IT spends within an organisation. The financial and strategic impact on a nascent discipline such as EA within an organisation is difficult to predict - finances will be constrained. In the last 3 years EA suffered considerably as a proportion of IT spend. It is expected this will continue for the next 3 years.
In Summary: The proliferation of EA practices within organisations could well be inhibited by decreasing IT spends as a result of the economic climate
The Pervasive Use of Visio and Office
It is an established factor in the EA Market that there is a pervasive use of Microsoft Visio and Office (over 70% according to the two leading IT Market Analysts). There are some 240 Million copies of Microsoft Office on desktops around the world. The dominance of this product set is testimony to good design, ease of use and low cost. It is certain that any perspective of the EA market would be founded on this massive uptake of Office (and Visio) within the EA market. One of the most common barriers to adoption of EA tools is not so much to do with 'functionality' as to do with ease of use and integration.
In Summary: The ease-of-use and ease-of-integration of MS Visio and Office will ensure that these interfaces will continue to represent the majority of the EA tools market
EA Tool Vendors: A Tip for Comparing Growth Potential
Revenues from new business clients (license sales) as oppose to revenues from 'old' clients (heavily bolstered by maintenance) is a much better indicator of a vendor's current and future market prosperity.
EA Frameworks - A Market Update
A perspective of the future EA Market must take account of how the EA Initiative is deployed. The complexity of EA requires a 'framework' approach incorporating a process and methodology. The up-take of frameworks, methods and standards varies according to Geographic and Industry sectors. In the USA DODAF, FEA, FSAM are elected Government frameworks but are hardly recognised outside the USA. The Gartner Framework represents a minority offering and again is not prevalent outside the USA. The Zachman Framework is well known, but has little traction in Governments within Europe, Australasia or the USA. The only EA framework which has broad geographic uptake both in Government and in Corporates is TOGAF® 9. This framework has been around for the last 15 years, is vendor independent but at the same time sponsored by a consortium of corporate and governmental organisations from around the globe. Furthermore the extensible metamodel and inherent focus on flexible customisation ensures a more ready acceptance across government and corporate entities. In the USA the uptake of the TOGAF® certification has been significant. There is also increasing interest from the larger EA consultancies in the adoption of their own frameworks to accord with TOGAF® 9.
In Summary: EAFrameworks are now considered compulsory for successfully deploying EA. Going forward TOGAF® 9 will cement is place as the de facto EA Framework for both Governments and Corporates alike.
EA Maturity: More Accepted Measurement Required
Most market watchers agree that in the EA Market only a small minority of organisations have progressed significantly along the EA 'maturity curve'. There are a range of methodologies which are focus on EA Capability as an integral part of an organisation's EA maturity, as defined below: Capability: "A measure of the ability of an entity (department, organization, person, system) to achieve its objectives, especially in relation to its overall mission." Therefore the maturing of the EA market over the next 3 years will be a function of each organisation's EA Capability. We think that one Analyst is on the money when he says of his Level 5 Maturity ranking (being a function of EA driving change, stakeholder perceptions are high and there is continuous process EA improvement) that 'Today, few enterprises have reached this level of EA commitment in the business and the IT organization, because many years of experience are needed to achieve the necessary cultural changes'.
In Summary: The maturing of the EA market over the next 3 years will be a function of each organisation's EA Capability and is unlikely to progress significantly.
Performance Measurement of EA: A Constraint to Growth
Many Market Analysts argue that all companies will progress their EA Capability to the extent it is an integral part of the corporate business strategy. There are different opinions as to what exactly this means and, if true, how long it will take to get there. It is instructive to contrast the Forrester approach (The Generation of EA Tools) and Gartner's perspective.
The evolution of EA tools and the EA practice within organisations will be dependent on a common standard of performance measurement. Firstly, how does an organisation measure ROI from EA and set appropriate KPIs? There are currently no standard measurements to evaluate a Corporate or Government's EA Practise. The second issue is EA contribution to core Business Strategy - the 'how, if and what' of this contribution is only vaguely defined by Market Research. Our survey of over 100 blue chip clients worldwide revealed little or no structured integration of EA and Corporate strategy on a mature level. However business drivers will force organisations to look to define the ROI and KPIs increasingly on a more formal basis.
In Summary: The lack of any credible method for measuring the performance of an EA practice will continue to be an obstacle to EA becoming a core component of strategic planning.
EA Roles, Education and Experience.
Establishing a trained and experience EA workforce takes time to do. A major constraint of on the development of the EA market and 'maturity' will be a function of availability of skilled and experienced people.